The White House has issued a National Security Presidential Memorandum (NSPM) outlining a comprehensive strategy to impose “maximum pressure” on the Government of the Islamic Republic of Iran. This action signals a return to a hardline approach aimed at denying Iran all paths to a nuclear weapon, countering its malign influence in the region, and disrupting its support for terrorist groups. This analysis will examine the key provisions of this Presidential Action, its potential impact, and the political ramifications of this decision.
This National Security Presidential Memorandum (NSPM-2), titled “Imposing Maximum Pressure on the Government of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Denying Iran All Paths to a Nuclear Weapon, and Countering Iran’s Malign Influence,” directs a coordinated effort across multiple government agencies to increase pressure on Iran. It identifies Iran as the world’s leading state sponsor of terror, citing its support for Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis, and other terrorist networks, as well as its aggressive development of missiles and other weapons. The memorandum directs the Secretary of the Treasury to immediately impose sanctions on individuals violating Iran-related sanctions and implement a robust sanctions enforcement campaign. The Secretary of State is directed to drive Iran’s oil exports to zero and lead a diplomatic campaign to isolate Iran. Other agencies, including the Departments of Commerce, Justice, and Homeland Security, as well as the U.S. Permanent Representative to the United Nations, are given specific directives to counter Iran’s nuclear program, support for terrorism, and malign influence. This NSPM represents a renewed commitment to a confrontational approach towards Iran.
The National Security Presidential Memorandum (NSPM) occurs within a long history of strained relations between the United States and Iran, particularly since the 1979 Iranian Revolution. It reflects the administration’s strong opposition to Iran’s nuclear program, its support for terrorist groups, and its destabilizing activities in the Middle East. This action signals a clear departure from any potential for diplomatic engagement and a return to a “maximum pressure” strategy reminiscent of the Trump administration. The memorandum also invokes a number of recent events including the October 7, 2023, Hamas massacres and the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea.
The National Security Presidential Memorandum (NSPM) contains several key directives:
- Treasury Department: Immediately impose sanctions on individuals violating Iran-related sanctions, implement a sanctions enforcement campaign, review and modify general licenses providing Iran with economic relief, issue updated guidance on the risks of violating sanctions, and maintain countermeasures at the Financial Action Task Force.
- State Department: Modify or rescind sanctions waivers, drive Iran’s oil exports to zero, lead a diplomatic campaign to isolate Iran, and ensure that the Iraqi financial system and Gulf countries are not utilized for sanctions evasion.
- U.S. Permanent Representative to the United Nations: Work to complete the snapback of international sanctions on Iran, hold Iran accountable for its breach of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, and regularly convene the United Nations Security Council to highlight the threats posed by Iran.
- Commerce Department: Conduct a robust export control enforcement campaign to restrict the flow of technology used by Iran for military purposes.
- Attorney General: Investigate, disrupt, and prosecute financial and logistical networks supporting Iran, impound illicit Iranian oil cargoes, identify Iranian assets in the United States and overseas to help victims of terrorism, indict and prosecute leaders and members of Iranian-funded terrorist groups, and disrupt efforts by the Iranian government to conduct espionage or obtain sensitive information.
Potential Impact
- Iranian Economy: The NSPM could significantly harm the Iranian economy by further restricting its access to international markets and financial resources.
- Regional Stability: The NSPM could escalate tensions in the Middle East, potentially leading to increased conflict between Iran and its regional rivals, as well as the United States and its allies.
- Nuclear Program: The NSPM could deter Iran from pursuing a nuclear weapon by increasing the costs and risks associated with its nuclear program. However, it could also push Iran to accelerate its nuclear activities in response to increased pressure.
- U.S.-Iran Relations: The NSPM will further deteriorate relations between the United States and Iran, making any future diplomatic engagement more difficult.
- International Relations: The NSPM will likely strain relations with some U.S. allies who favor a more diplomatic approach to Iran.
Legal/Constitutional Considerations
The President has broad authority to conduct foreign policy and impose sanctions under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) and other laws. However, the implementation of the NSPM could raise legal challenges, particularly if it infringes on the rights of U.S. citizens or businesses or violates international law.
Political Implications
- Support from Conservatives: The NSPM will likely be welcomed by conservatives who believe that a tough stance is necessary to counter Iran’s malign influence.
- Criticism from Democrats: Democrats may criticize the NSPM as a reckless and ineffective approach that could lead to unintended consequences and increase the risk of conflict.
- Mixed Reactions from U.S. Allies: U.S. allies will likely have mixed reactions to the NSPM, with some supporting a tough approach to Iran and others favoring a more diplomatic solution.
- Potential Impact on Presidential Approval: The NSPM could boost the President’s approval rating among voters who are concerned about Iran’s nuclear program and support for terrorism.
Comparison to Previous Actions
This NSPM represents a clear return to the “maximum pressure” strategy pursued by the Trump administration after withdrawing from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), also known as the Iran nuclear deal. It signals a rejection of efforts by previous administrations to engage diplomatically with Iran.
White House Rationale
The White House rationale, as articulated in the NSPM, is that Iran poses a grave threat to U.S. national security and the international order. The administration argues that a tough approach is necessary to deny Iran a nuclear weapon, counter its malign influence, and disrupt its support for terrorism. This is meant to show the population a strong response from the President.
Alternative Perspectives
Critics may argue that the “maximum pressure” strategy has been ineffective in achieving its stated goals and has instead led to increased tensions and instability in the Middle East. They may contend that a more diplomatic approach, including a return to the JCPOA, is necessary to address Iran’s nuclear program and other concerns.